- According to legal analysts, the probability of a settlement between Ripple and the SEC before July 14 is very slim, and no motion has been filed.
- Attorney Marc Fagel confirms the SEC has to vote internally and engage in a formal process to withdraw the case.
XRP investors anticipating a last-minute Ripple vs. SEC settlement after July 14 might be left disappointed, as legal experts reject the possibility of a quick settlement.
A former SEC official, attorney Marc Fagel, explained that the SEC system does not make a weekend settlement possible.
Not on a weekend they won’t. It typically takes a month or two for a vote on an enforcement recommendation, so people need to chill. There’s a process.
— Marc Fagel (@Marc_Fagel) July 12, 2025
Fagel also addressed rumors on social media directly, stating that the SEC can only withdraw any case after a formal review and internal voting. He said that it can normally take one to two months. He ruled out the prospect of a weekend decision, saying forthrightly, “Not a weekend, they do not.”
He also reacted to speculation that Judge Analisa Torres could step in. Fagel asserts that Judge Torres has no jurisdiction over the Ripple case. This view aligns with earlier remarks by legal analyst James K. Filan, who said there are no pending motions before her.
The SEC has not filed a motion to dismiss the appeal to further eliminate the uncertainty. With the window on appeal now closed, the agency must now vote in-house and jointly move with Ripple to dismiss the case formally, a process that disregards a possible July 14 date.
Closed-Door Meeting Fuels Market Buzz
The unease among investors followed a closed-door meeting held by the SEC earlier this week that triggered new rumors of a settlement. However, the legal experts insist that these meetings are procedural and not directly associated with the case of Ripple.
Fagel reaffirmed that there is no reason to expect imminent action when a closed SEC session is conducted, much less lacking a publicly filed statement or a mutually requested action. He cautioned that community speculation is well ahead of reality as far as legal development is concerned.
The date of July 14 has also been circulating in the XRP community, following previous discussions about a potential settlement with Ripple utilizing alignments to the ISO 20022 standards. Fagel, however, dispelled such a theory, noting that there was no schedule or time officially matched with the ISO implementation.
He emphasized that the new occurrences are all on the baseline of the legal process rather than external programs.
No Link to Gensler or Past Political Moves
Fagel also denied accusations linking former SEC Chair Gary Gensler with the case extension. He affirmed that the Ripple suit was brought in 2020 prior to Gensler’s appointment with the agency. The complaint is held legally responsible by the enforcement division of the SEC and not the subsequent leadership.
He claimed that, should the investors in XRP lose money, the responsibility would fall on Ripple, given alleged breaches of securities laws. Fagel said that the SEC was to enforce regulations but not cause losses. Since there are no pending motions with Judge Torres, and the SEC continues to work through internal procedures, analysts believe it is extremely unlikely that a solution will occur prior to July 14.
