A Golden Chance To Buy Bitcoin BTC USD Price? Bears Retest A Key Loading Zone

In roughly two weeks, the Bitcoin price has plunged by over 24%, extending losses from October 10.

As it stands, digital gold is down a massive 32% from its all-time high. Whether or not the BTC USD price will recover remains to be seen. The good news for optimistic bulls is that the Bitcoin price is stabilizing, even edging higher over the week.

$BTC is about to close its 2nd consecutive weekly candle below the EMA-50 level.

In 2018 and 2022, this resulted in another 50% dump.

The only way Bitcoin won't dump is if the 4-year cycle is dead. pic.twitter.com/TNr4vm35uq

— Ted (@TedPillows) November 23, 2025

There may be an opportunity for a short-term bounce back to the $96,000 and $100,000 zone should buyers reclaim $90,000. Before then, however, traders should closely watch price action, aware that any dump below $82,000 might trigger more panic selling.

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Is This The Perfect Time To Go Long BTC USD Price?

While this position is bearish, on X, traders are upbeat. Specifically, one analyst shared a chart showing how the BTC USD price has been performing relative to what he described as “long-respected price bands.”

These bands, formed by the short-term holder (STH) Market Value Relative Value (MVRV) bands over the past few years, have successfully contained any form of BTC USD price volatility.

Bitcoin has respected the short-term holder MVRV bands for the last several years, rarely breaking out above or down below the one standard deviation guardrails.

It broke below this past week.

Bottoms can take time to form, but this is the wrong time to be bearish.

These tend… pic.twitter.com/88UrhyMsKH

— Frank (@FrankAFetter) November 22, 2025

Most importantly for diamond hands and trend traders, the BTC USDT price has, at no point, broken below or above the one standard deviation “guardrails” of the STH MVRV band.

If anything, crypto prices, including some of the best Solana meme coins, tend to top every time the upper band of the STH MVRV is tested. It happened at $31,000 in H1 2023, then again in H1 2024, and in early 2025.

BTC USDT bottoms were also marked when the Bitcoin price collapsed to around $49,000 and $74,000. Whenever the lower band is retested, prices tend to snap back sharply.

After months of sideways chop, the BTC USDT price tested and even broke the lower band of the STH MVRV for the first time since the coin plunged to $74,000 in April 2025.

Given the history, the analyst thinks this is a perfect signal to go long and selling now is selling at price bottoms; a bad decision.

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Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Dumping

Bullish as this is, traders should proceed with caution. For over one year, one analyst observed a worrying trend: Long-term holders (LTHs), or entities that have held BTC for at least six months, have been actively selling since March 2024.

Never in Bitcoin’s history have we seen Long-Term Holders let go of their coins the way they are now.

They’ve essentially been distributing BTC since March 2024.

A shift in ownership is unfolding across the Bitcoin network, with new entities steadily accumulating coins that had… pic.twitter.com/PewIcAYJdP

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) November 23, 2025

LTHs often HODL, and because they control a big chunk of the total supply, their actions can impact short-term price action.

BREAKING

SATOSHI ERA WHALE JUST SOLD ALL HIS BITCOIN AFTER 15 YEARS OF HODLING.

HE DUMPED 11,000 $BTC WORTH OVER $1.3 BILLION.

IS THIS THE START OF A MAJOR SELL-OFF?? pic.twitter.com/5L8DOvc51U

— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) November 9, 2025

Interestingly, though these entities have been selling for months now, other entities, including firms like MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, and spot Bitcoin ETFs, have been accumulating.

Still, it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue. However, with fewer coins in the hands of LTHs, it may signal that the market is becoming more decentralized. Overall, this is beneficial for BTC USD prices in the long run.

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