Bitcoin Reclaims $63K as ETF Inflows Return and a Short Squeeze Clears the Bears

Trading Higher

Bitcoin traded as high as $63,832 early Monday, extending a rebound that has carried the largest cryptocurrency from below $60,000 to above $63,000 in five sessions. The market first crossed $63,000 in U.S. morning hours on July 4, leaving bitcoin up 1.4% over 24 hours and 3.6% on the week at that point.

Three catalysts set the recovery in motion, according to market observers. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that inflation risks have come down, the June jobs report showed the U.S. economy adding just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, and crowded short positions were forced to unwind as the price climbed into them.

Popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades subsequently noted that bitcoin shorts were cleared twice as the price moved toward $63,000 yesterday. He described the move as a “classic short squeeze,” in which sellers are forced to close positions as the price rises into a crowded short zone.

That said, analysts cautioned that trading was thin over the Independence Day holiday weekend, a notable data point considering June punished leveraged traders heavily, including an early-June flush of $1.8 billion in forced liquidations, the largest such event since February.

ETF Bleeding Slows After a Record June

Much of bitcoin’s June weakness was traced back to the exchange-traded fund (ETF) complex. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows for the month, the largest single-month redemption since the products launched in January 2024, eclipsing May’s $2.4 billion and the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025.

Blackrock’s IBIT, the biggest fund in the group, accounted for the bulk of the exits, and flow trackers put year-to-date net outflows near $5.4 billion.

The tide turned on July 2, when the funds drew $221.72 million in net inflows, snapping a 10-day streak that had pulled $2.7 billion out of the products. Traders read the weak jobs print as easing near-term pressure from the Federal Reserve, giving rate-sensitive assets room to breathe.

Corporate treasury behavior added another layer of caution to the backdrop. Bitcoin.com News reported that Strategy moved 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime last week, the company’s first direct exchange deposit in nearly two years (a transfer that drove Polymarket odds of a 2026 bitcoin sale by Michael Saylor’s firm to 84%).

The Levels Traders Are Watching

For the rebound to stick, chart watchers say bitcoin must hold $62,600 to keep the short-term squeeze alive. Below that sits the $60,000 psychological level, followed by the $58,100 to $58,500 zone near the recent lows. On the upside, a sustained reclaim of $65,000 would confirm stronger bullish momentum, with $66,000 the next barrier above it.

Positioning in prediction markets suggests the crowd is not yet convinced of a v-shaped recovery. Bitcoin.com News reported in June that traders gave bitcoin 76% odds of hitting $50,000 before $100,000, and that speculators wagered $16.4 million on the price staying below $75,000 through June (a bet the market ultimately resolved in the bears’ favor).