Key Takeaways
- Data shows bitcoin cycle lows came 71, 39 and 13 days after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.
- Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep of Congress at 72% on over $51M in trading volume.
- If the pattern repeats, bitcoin’s next cycle low could land between mid-November 2026 and January 2027.
The Midterm Pattern
Crypto researchers have bitcoin’s last three cycle bottoms came soon after the U.S. midterms:
- In 2014, the low arrived 71 days after the vote.
- In 2018, it came 39 days later.
- In 2022, just 13 days later.
Counting from Tuesday’s vote on Nov. 3, those three gaps would put a low somewhere between mid-November 2026 and mid-January 2027. The 2022 gap is the most familiar example, as the FTX collapse hit days after the Nov. 8 election that year, and bitcoin dropped toward $16,000.
Some analysts say the selloffs tied to these elections were deep, with analyst Ali Martinez finding that bitcoin fell after four straight midterms: 72% after 2010, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022.
Why It Matters Now
Bitcoin heads into the vote looking weak, ending the month with its worst October finish since 2014 (and the $6.3 billion Binance hack only added more pressure to the mix). BTC is trading near $78,500.
Prediction markets are betting heavily on a change in Washington and Polymarket’s balance of power market prices Democrats winning both the House and the Senate at 72%, with more than $51 million wagered on the overall contract. Market analyst Charlie Bilello noted that the odds had reached the highest to date over the weekend. On Kalshi, the Democratic sweep matched its all-time high at 70%.
Election betting is also drawing attention in Washington as Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have pressed Kalshi and Polymarket over possible insider trading on election contracts.
For crypto, a Democratic sweep would change the outlook for pending market structure legislation. Asset manager Grayscale disagrees that the vote will decide much. In an Oct. 28 note, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl estimated that the U.S. accounts for only 15-20% of global crypto activity.
He argued adoption will continue regardless of the result, but even so, traders usually reduce risk before big political events, and this week is busy. Binance’s delayed proof of reserves is also due on Tuesday.
The Other Side of the Trade
The pattern also points to what comes after those lows. In this regard, data from Cryptoquant shows bitcoin lost more than 60% in each of the last three midterm years. It then averaged gains of over 50% in the 12 months after the vote.
Some traders think this cycle may already be different, and Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, who had been bearish, publicly said, “I was wrong” after bitcoin held $77,000 in the days after the Binance hack.
Others are still cautious, and Macro analyst Henrik Zeberg called the current move a likely “Fool’s Rally” that could reach $115,000 before the bear market resumes.
Three data points don’t prove a rule, and the midterm gaps also line up with bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. Still, traders will watch the post-election weeks closely. If BTC holds up through mid-January 2027, the pattern breaks; but if it slides, the midterm-bottom view will get more attention.
