## Market Snapshot The “Fall of the Iranian Regime” market is currently priced at 2.8% YES for a May 31 resolution. The “Iran leadership change by December 31” market stands at 33.5% YES, while the “Iran leadership change by May 31” market is at 8.5% YES. ## Key Takeaways – The large gathering in Karachi…
While generating a net profit above $1.04 billion, Tether’s excess reserve buffer hit a record $8.23 billion, concentrated in short-duration liquid instruments. The leading stablecoin issuer has released its attestation report for the first quarter of 2026, revealing a net profit of more than $1 billion. The company was able to generate such profit…
Bitcoin failed to hold its weekend move near $79,000 as traders weighed the latest FOMC decision, U.S.-Iran tension, and mixed altcoin action. Summary Bitcoin rejected near $79,000 as traders stayed cautious after the Fed left rates unchanged again. Iran peace talks affected risk appetite, limiting Bitcoin’s follow-through despite support near $78,000 this week. XRP held…
## Market Snapshot The market for Ethereum price predictions in May currently prices the likelihood of reaching $5,000 at 0% YES. For the price on May 3, the market remains at 99.9% YES for Ethereum being above $1,800. Both markets indicate heightened volatility. ## Key Takeaways – The surge in ETH unstaking appears consistent with…
Placing crypto alongside shadow banking and weapons procurement means Treasury believes it is being used for actual trade settlement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X on April 29 that Washington’s sanctions campaign is now going after Iran’s “access to crypto,” alongside oil exports, shipping networks, and shadow banking channels. It is the…
Coinbase says Senate negotiators have reached a deal on a disputed crypto bill provision tied to stablecoin rewards. Summary Coinbase says negotiators reached a rewards compromise, easing a key delay for the CLARITY Act. Banks secured limits on deposit-like yield, while crypto firms kept activity-based user rewards under rules. The Senate markup path now depends…
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market is currently priced at 5.5% YES for a ceasefire by May 31, 2026, down from 6% 24 hours ago. The pricing suggests skepticism towards a resolution in the near term, amid heightened tensions. ## Key Takeaways – The report of drone attacks on Plesetsk Cosmodrome suggests ongoing military tensions…
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund has closed a new $6 billion fund, marking the largest raise in the venture capital firm’s history. Summary Founders Fund closed a record $6 billion fund focused mainly on late-stage startup investments. Limited partners provided $4.5 billion, while Thiel and insiders contributed another $1.5 billion. The raise shows major venture firms…
## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil market is currently assessing the likelihood of prices hitting $150 in May, with outcomes still uncertain. In the US-Iran nuclear deal market, pricing suggests a 16.5% probability of a deal by May 31, up from 14% a day ago. ## Key Takeaways – The news suggests increased pressure from…
Based on historical data, rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand is associated with unsustained price gains during bear seasons. April ended with bitcoin (BTC) posting a 12% increase – the biggest such gain in a year. Although the asset had corrected slightly to $75,000 by the last day of the month, market participants…
