## Market Snapshot In the Polymarket event “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th”, pricing reflects a 0% YES probability as of the deadline. This remains unchanged from a 0.1% YES pricing just 24 hours earlier, marking a notable decline from 6% a week ago. ## Key Takeaways – Trump’s statement…
A wave of whale transactions and rising holdings suggests something bigger may be unfolding behind DOGE’s latest price surge. After a period of relative calm, the OG meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), has surged even as other top crypto assets have pulled back from gains. Interestingly, Santiment revealed Dogecoin whale activity has surged to a…
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse declared at XRP Las Vegas that the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of May, his third public deadline for the bill after predicting 80% odds of April passage on Fox Business in February and revising to May at two successive industry events. Summary Garlinghouse first gave 80% odds of…
## Market Snapshot The “Military Actions Against Iran” market, focusing on potential UK strikes, remains at 0.1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The “Iran Military Action” market, regarding a strike on Israel, holds steady at 100% YES. The “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market shows a significant decline in the likelihood of an…
MSTR is up roughly 9.5% year-to-date, placing it ahead of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, while the BTC backing its treasury is down 13%. Strategy’s MSTR stock snapped a nine-month run of losses in April, climbing 33% as Bitcoin (BTC) rose nearly 12% in the same month, according to data shared by market…
137 Ventures has raised over $700m across two new funds, lifting AUM above $15b as it doubles down on AI agents, robotics, advanced industry and a $10b‑plus SpaceX stake. Summary SpaceX backer 137 Ventures has closed more than $700 million across two new funds, lifting its assets under management above $15 billion. The growth-stage firm…
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the probability of a YES outcome has decreased to 40.5%, down from 44% 24 hours ago and 63% a week ago. The “Strait of Hormuz Traffic” market suggests a low likelihood of normal traffic resuming by the end of April. ## Key Takeaways – The…
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told the House Armed Services Committee this week that the Pentagon is running classified Bitcoin projects that provide the US military “a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios.” This repositioned Bitcoin from a speculative technology price prediction into an instrument of American strategic power. With it…
Pi Network has set May 11 as the activation date for Protocol 23, the upgrade that introduces full smart contract functionality to the Pi blockchain and transforms the network from a mobile mining project into a programmable platform capable of supporting DeFi applications and real-world asset tokenisation. Summary Pi Network Protocol 23 lands on May…
## Market Snapshot Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 11.5% YES, up from 10% 24 hours ago. The market reflects a modest increase in the likelihood of a ceasefire, with recent activity indicating a slight rise in optimism. ## Key Takeaways – Russia’s ceasefire proposal suggests a potential for…
