Nvidia stock hits all-time high amid easing US-China trade tensions

Nvidia’s stock closed at an all-time high yesterday, its first in 177 days. The Polymarket contract for Nvidia to become the largest company by market cap on June 30 is now at 92.5% YES, up from 90% a week ago.

The stock rally followed a temporary easing in US-China trade tensions, which lifted the chip sector broadly. The largest company by June market prices Nvidia at 92.5% YES, with traders betting Nvidia will surpass Apple and Tesla by month’s end.

The de-escalation in chip trade restrictions supports Nvidia’s AI-driven revenue growth. Broader geopolitical risks, including tensions involving Iran, could still introduce volatility. Over the past week, odds have barely moved; the largest single price change was a 1-point move recorded at 5:59 AM.

Daily trading volume is $4,178 in USDC, but the market requires $42,558 to shift the price by 5 percentage points. That depth-to-volume ratio points to institutional positioning rather than retail speculation. The narrow price range and high liquidity threshold both reflect strong conviction among current holders.

At 92.5¢, a YES share pays only 1.08x if correct, leaving limited upside. The contrarian trade is NO, which would pay off on an unforeseen geopolitical shock or a market correction that knocks Nvidia below Apple before June 30.

Nvidia’s Q1 earnings report is the next major catalyst. Any supply chain disruptions or revised guidance could move these odds. New developments in US-China trade policy, particularly around chip export controls, would also directly affect this market.

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