On the flip side, BTC managed to reclaim a key support level, which should provide more upside momentum.
The US CPI data for June brought a much-needed relief rally in the cryptocurrency markets, pushing the largest of the bunch to a new three-week peak at $65,500.
However, after gaining about $4,000 in just a day, the asset was rejected and driven south by $1,500. According to popular crypto analysts, this was not an isolated or accidental rejection, as history might map out the path forward.
Why Was BTC Stopped?
Crypto Rover noted that BTC has faced the same scenario after every relief rally during this bear cycle. It surges to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and then the bears step up and halt its progress. He believes this is because it’s the average cost basis of recent buyers.
“As soon as they get back to break-even, many sell to exit their positions.”
This pattern first played out in November last year, after the notorious October crash, which wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions. BTC was stopped at $115,000 at the time, before similar occurrences took place during January’s rally to $95,000, and the mid-May surge to $83,000.
Merlijn The Trader shared a similar opinion, claiming he envisioned this bull-trap rally to $65,500. He believes another leg down is in the making and predicted a “flush toward the $58.5K-$60K order block.”
He outlined the significance of the $63,000 support. If held, BTC could still see some upward momentum, especially if it reclaims the aforementioned $65,500 resistance. However, a breakdown below $63,000 is likely to result in another sub-$60,000 dip.
On The Flip Side…
Another popular analyst, Jelle, outlined a rather contrasting scenario. He indicated that BTC’s recent move represented a “big win for the bulls,” as the asset has “reclaimed the previous range lows.” He warned that bitcoin tends to move slowly during the summer and investors should be cautious about becoming too bullish during such not-ideal market conditions.
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Nevertheless, Jelle added that this is a “good start” for bitcoin, but a more profound move north would require breaking many key levels before “things really change for the better.”
Big win for the bulls, $BTC has reclaimed the previous range lows!
Good start, but still loads of levels to break before things really change for the better.
It’s still summer; tends to be slow – and I’ll treat the market accordingly. DCA, nothing more. pic.twitter.com/XrpNvb3uoE
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) July 16, 2026
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